Simple Technical Analysis

If I had to settle for the least information I could get, I would settle for a price chart - bars or candlesticks - with volume.

Beyond this, TA is a sort of a chicken and egg question.

With the start of the great bull market in the mid-1990ies, the Internet also gained acceptance and a shipload of chart analysis programs (some even free) floaded the markets.

According to the Wallstreet Journal, in September 2003, program trading accounted for 40% of the total trading volume. Which trading programs?
On July 2nd, 2004 the WSJ titled 7/2/04 Program Trading Accounts For 70.5% of NYSE Volume
On that subject, read Alan Newman August 2004 paper Telling Factors(also to be archived here)

It is plausible to speculate that sophisticated what-if programs have a statistical database of market reactions at specific price levels, completion of patterns, combinations of indicators/oscillators signals,... which are the most watched.
If this was not the case, and should I have money, I would hire the most competent people ASAP to have such a program.

So, what we need to find are the charting elements which are most likely not included in the trading programs and see, instrument per instrument, which ones can still be used by the small investor. The answer is simple: as soon as a system starts to work, it will be recognized and stop working.

 

Rem:

Wall Street & Technology online

Technical analysis 101

 

There is a choice to make:

  • fight the BigBoyz at their own game, try to outsmart their algorithms
  • chose timeframes beyond those they use, try to find patterns which still work.
 

Best places to start, in this order:

The basis: what and when to trade at which price?

 

If the choice of an instrument can be selected by widely available scanning filters, and price levels, overbought/oversold conditions determined by most charting softwares, to my knowledge, few systems include a time factor.

Although, in my opinion, the basis of any transaction, even in plain business: What - When - Which price?

 

 

I urge you to read Bill Voeten's article "Dealing with Time" (Gann/Elliot)

Candlesticks

Companies / authors to watch:
  • Steve Nison who introduced the candlesticks in the US.
  • International Pacific Trading Company (Gary S. Wagner, Brad L. Matheny) :
    The Candlestic Forecaster (one of the first recognition programs on the PC), now
    The Pattern Forecaster (Matheny Enterprises, Brad L. Matheny)
  • Takehiro Hikita
    Seiki Shimizu The Japanese Chart of Charts, translated by Greg Nicholson (Tokyo Futures Trading Publishing Co.). 70 pages (The best one to own).
  • Gregory L. Morris Candlesticks Charting Explained
  • North System Inc. CandlePower 6

Simply said, recognition patterns are scanned by the BigBoyz. Your only advantage would be to combine candlesticks patterns with other TA as long as they don't use the same combination.

 

Candlesticks (on-line):

Books from Amazon
Windsor Books

Patterns

 

 

Patterns are diversely interpreted. Most common error is to forget that patterns are of two type:

  • continuation patterns
  • trend reversal patterns

Trendlines

And you thought they were easy to draw?

All you have to do is to guess which line the big traders are watching. Click the chart.

Time/price ranges

 

Reading the Tape (Daryl "Guppy")

 

 

  • moving averages
  • envelopes: Bollinger bands :: equidistant :: Donchian :: Keltner
  • regressions: linear :: standard error :: standard deviation :: equidistant :: Raff
  • Trader's pivots ::Quadrants :: Tirone levels :: Gann :: Fibonacci
  • reading the tape

The median line

 

The Median Line (Timothy Morge) medianline.com

 

THE median line charting software:

 

  • Keywords: median line :: Andrews :: Babson :: Schiff

Own illustration of ML