Louis' paranoia investment page

Charts - bin

  Four last Kondratieff cycles
This first chart (source: Sharelynx)
shows the last four K-Cycles.
  • The Industrial/French Revolution cycle (1784-1844), bottom 1829.
  • The "Bourgeois" railroadazition, coal and iron industries.(1844-1888). Turned into a depression in 1873.
  • The Neo-Mercantilism (1888-1949). Electric power and automobile industry was in expansion till 1914 and turned into depression in the 1930's and 1940's.
  • The computer cycle.(1949-20??). The growth phase ended around 1981 and we are at (or already are) in a depression which should last until 2009 or 2014.



    • Each K-cycle has two alternating greed to fear phases.
    These cycles are most commonly associated with the terms:
    - Revival: economic activity and confidence start to increase ("revive").
    - Recession: increasing activity comes with increased debt and inflation.
    - Prosperity: interest rates decline, stock markets boom
    - Depression: the debt fund expansion cannot sell it's products to a debt saturated consumer.
    Markets and economic cycles are not completely in sync and varies differently.
    Best shown in this diagram by (Bob Bronson ?)




    Transposed on the last 100 years of the Dow chart.
    Where will we find our cycle bottom?
    Historically speaking (follow my red lines) this could be very low.